After months of a high-decibel, and at times acrimonious, campaign, the US elected its 47th President as Republican candidate Donald Trump swept through
the blue wall states to become the head of state of the oldest electoral democracy in the world. For India, Trump’s return to power has special resonance; his policies in his second term will be as eagerly monitored by Indians as a popular soap opera. With
Trump back in office, India’s relationship with the US feels like reconnecting with a familiar past—full of potential benefits, albeit wrapped in an unpredictable package. India and the US have a complex relationship—one that requires a mix of diplomacy, patience, and pragmatism. As Modi and Trump prepare for round two, India must tread carefully, balancing opportunities against uncertainties. From the start of his first term, Trump’s tweets became a centrepiece of his foreign policy style. His Twitter account, once just a
platform for self-expression, transformed into a tool for setting policy, and issuing statements on global issues. For India and the world, these tweets were both intriguing and alarming, often revealing Trump’s impulsive nature. For instance, one of Trump’s early tweets declared, “When will
all the haters and fools out there realise that having a good relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing.” This tweet left allies like India wondering how seriously they could rely on the US for support against other powerful nations like China, given Trump’s unpredictable diplomatic style. Trump’s Twitter (now X) presence meant countries, including India, had to constantly monitor his feed to anticipate policy shifts.
Under Trump’s first term, India and the US developed closer ties in defence, especially as Trump frequently criticised China.
While blunt, his comments reassured India that Trump saw China as a significant threat. The US provided India with military equipment that helped strengthen India’s role in the Indo-Pacific region.
Yet, Trump’s approach to foreign policy has always been transactional, leading to an underlying caution for India. While the words were comforting, the risk of sudden change loomed large, and
India’s defence strategists knew they couldn’t rely entirely on the goodwill of one man’s social media statements. Trump’s often friendly stance on Russia brings another dynamic into play for India. For India, this approach could be beneficial,
as it has long maintained a strategic partnership with Russia for military support and regional stability. This could create space for
Joe Biden’s late withdrawal hampered the Democratic Party’s challenge in the presidential election
India to keep its relationships with both Russia and the US intact, despite pressure from Western nations to reduce ties with Moscow. If Trump were to ease tensions with Russia, it would allow India to pursue its interests without facing backlash over its partnerships, potentially benefiting both countries in the process. One of the unique benefits of Trump’s presidency for India was
his “America First” approach, which prioritised domestic issues over foreign interventions. This led to a hands-off stance in internal policies of other countries, including India’s. For example, while previous US administrations commented on sensitive issues in India, like the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir, Trump’s
administration largely refrained from doing so.
This lack of interference suited Modi’s government, as it allowed India to make decisions on complex domestic matters with fewer international pressures. For India, this meant a more
flexible space to manoeuvre on sensitive topics without fearing criticism from the US over human rights or democratic issues. While some observers questioned Trump’s commitment to global human rights, his hands-off approach was a relief for India on domestic matters.
The Trump Trade Challenge
However, if there was one area where Trump’s policies posed a challenge for India, it was trade. Trump’s protectionist stance was
evident from the beginning, as he often targeted countries he believed were taking advantage of American markets. One of his tweets stated, “India charges us a lot of tariffs. Seriously, if we give
them zero, they should give us zero.” Such statements raised concerns in India about a potential trade war.
During his first term, Trump openly criticised India’s high tariffs on American goods, particularly on items like Harley-Davidson motorcycles. He often spoke about correcting what he viewed as an unfair trade imbalance, and his approach could be even more aggressive in a second term. Indian exports like IT services, textiles, and pharmaceuticals depend heavily on the US market, and
any increase in tariffs could hurt these sectors. With Trump back
in office, Indian business leaders may brace for tough negotiations to ensure fair trade terms. Trump’s immigration policies also created a complex dynamic
for India, especially for skilled professionals seeking opportunities
in the US. During his previous term, Trump imposed stricter policies on H-1B visas, which impacted Indian tech professionals disproportionately. Trump tweeted, “We want to encourage people to work in the US legally but will no longer tolerate visa abuse.” This stance affected thousands of Indian workers who rely on the H-1B visa program, and it signalled his willingness to curtail what he
viewed as foreign exploitation of US jobs.
The Indian IT sector, which depends on a strong presence in the US, was significantly impacted by these restrictive policies. Families hoping for green cards and permanent residency in the US have faced delays, and Trump’s return raises questions about whether these restrictions will ease or intensify. For many Indian professionals, Trump’s stance on immigration could
mean an uphill battle in pursuing the “American Dream”. Dealing with Trump’s foreign policy was an art of interpretation for diplomats worldwide, and India was no exception. In one infamous tweet, Trump announced, “Our country needs strong borders and extreme vetting, now,” a clear message to those seeking
leniency on immigration. For Indian diplomats, such statements meant constantly recalibrating their approach.
Modi’s team knew that Trump’s words could set off policy shifts, requiring agility and a quick response. At times, these tweets served as an informal foreign policy channel, bypassing official
statements. This put India in a unique position; while there was always a risk of sudden policy changes, it also allowed for a direct and sometimes unfiltered insight into Trump’s thinking.
During his first term, Trump openly criticised India’s high tariffs on American goods, particularly on items like Harley-Davidson motorcycles
With Trump back in office, India’s relationship with the US will continue to be a balancing act of careful diplomacy and strategic
patience. India will look to capitalise on Trump’s strong stance on defence and mutual concerns over China, while also bracing for challenges in trade and immigration. For Modi, managing this
relationship will be like handling a large family—full of differing opinions but bound by shared interests and the necessity to make
it work. As a diplomat in South Block once said informally, “In diplomacy, you don’t just play the ball; you know which ones to leave.” Navigating the US-India relationship under Trump 2.0 will require
India to choose its battles carefully, maximising the benefits while mitigating the risks. The era of Modi-Trump 2.0 promises to be a colourful diplomatic dance, a jugalbandi (duet) of sorts, where India must play
offence and defence at the same time. With Trump’s tweets often serving as clues, Modi’s team will have to stay nimble, reading between the lines and preparing for sudden shifts. The writer is a political commentator and senior broadcast journalist.
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