There is no doubt that after 20 years as Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar is facing anti-incumbency headwinds, though he continues to share good relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Each alliance is claiming that this time it will form the government for the next five years. But there is restlessness within both combines, though the ruling coalition is dealing with a trickier situation—how to handle incumbent CM Nitish Kumar and his Janata
Dal (United)
The Assembly elections might be some months away yet, but both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan are already in election mode as they try to strike the right balance between the ambitions and realpolitik of their respective constituent parties
As Bihar gets ready for the mother of all electoral battles for the Assembly, to be held sometime in October or early November, the political temperature on the ground is already heading north. The fight in Bihar for electoral supremacy is essentially between two main alliances: the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led Mahagathbandhan (the Grand Alliance).
Prominent national leaders of both alliances have started visiting Bihar and state leaders have become active. On the part of the NDA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been according priority to Bihar since the Lok Sabha elections and has visited the state several times.
Similarly, Union Home Minister Amit Shah is also visiting the state. Both leaders recently held large public meetings.
Apart from them, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) working president, J.P. Nadda, the Union minister and former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and many other Union ministers have started making a beeline for Bihar. On behalf of the opposition alliance, the two biggest leaders of the Congress party, Rahul Gandhi and party president Mallikarjun Kharge, have also visited Bihar.
Even though the Assembly elections are still a few months away, the seriousness with which heavyweights of both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan are making their presence felt in the state indicates the stakes involved in this high-decibel political slugfest. Both alliances are currently dealing with a lot of variables, making the unfolding political dynamic very fluid.
The ruling NDA hopes that it will cross the majority mark in the 243-seat lower house this time too. But the ruling coalition is grappling with a number of uncertainties. The biggest apprehension is the discontent that has brewed against the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar over the past 20 years, and more important, his health. In the last Assembly elections (2020), the margin of victory and defeat for both alliances was thin.
However, before that, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA had completely routed the opposition. It had won 39 out of the 40 seats in the state. Despite this, when the Assembly elections were held, the Mahagathbandhan gave it a tough fight. At one time, it appeared that Bihar was headed for a hung Assembly in 2020. But the NDA squeezed through with wafer-thin wins in 15 seats across the state. After that, the opposition alliance improved its showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by winning nine seats. Their improved showing in the parliamentary elections has boosted the confidence and morale of the leadership of the alliance parties as well as of its cadre and workers. At the moment, it appears that the Mahagathbandhan is moving ahead with the agenda of social justice, based on caste census, and protecting the Constitution that enhanced its electoral outcome in May-June 2024.
Restlessness In NDA
Each alliance is claiming that this time it will form the government for the next five years. But there is restlessness within both combines, though the ruling coalition is dealing with a trickier situation—how to handle incumbent CM Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United) or JD(U).
The main reason for this is that Nitish Kumar has been chief minister for the past 20 years. There is the obvious disadvantage — anti incumbency. Secondly, Nitish’s health is not good. For the past year, his unnatural and erratic behaviour at public programmes hasn’t gone unnoticed.
His behaviour, like touching people’s feet on the dais, talking during the rendition of the national anthem at public events, or standing still with an aarti thali without performing the ceremony, has set tongues wagging about the acuity of his mental health. Some of his recent tasteless speeches on the floor of the House during debates have left his party colleagues acutely embarrassed.
For these reasons and others, the BJP wants to project someone else as the chief ministerial candidate in the hope of stemming the dissatisfaction arising from being in power too long and the political damage caused by rising concerns about his health.
Reports indicate that the Congress is ready to accept Tejashwi Yadav as the next CM of Bihar if the alliance comes to power
Under the new plan, the state government will now be jointly handled by Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary of the BJP and Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lallan Singh of the JD(U) for managing day-to-day affairs. Both recently held a meeting with key state officials
Political observers were of the opinion that had the Congress restricted itself to 40-45 seats, it would have helped the RJD and the Left parties. At the same time, it should be noted that the Congress was given seats which even the RJD has not won in the past two decades
But Nitish’s legendary stubbornness that has played a major role in shaping his political trajectory is proving to be a roadblock.
This has forced the BJP—the NDA’s biggest constituent to hunt for strategies to minimise the damage.
Under the new plan, the state government will now be jointly handled by Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary of the BJP and Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lallan Singh of the JD(U) for managing day-to-day affairs. Both recently held a meeting with key state officials.
Apart from this, problems with seat distribution in the ruling coalition have also surfaced. In the 2020 Assembly elections, the BJP, JD(U), Jitan Ram Majhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) were part of the NDA. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP (RV) contested separately. The BJP had contested 110 seats, JD(U) 115, HAM seven and VIP 11. The BJP won 74, JD(U) 43, HAM four and VIP four.
There is a reason behind the JD(U) winning only 43 seats despite contesting 115 seats. In 2020, Paswan’s LJP (RV) contested separately under the patronage of the BJP, and the party fielded candidates against JD(U) candidates. Though the LJP (RV) won only one seat, it severely damaged the JD(U)’s prospects due to the division of votes—especially those of Dalits and Extreme Backward Class (EBC), including mahadalits. At least 30 JD(U) candidates lost due to Paswan’s decision to fight separately. Now that Paswan is a part of the NDA, he has claimed that his party will contest at least 40 seats. A question hovers over how seats will be distributed in this situation. Which party—the BJP or JD(U)—will be forced to compromise on its share of seats to accommodate Paswan? This seems to be opening up a political minefield. The BJP has already stated that it will not contest less than 100 seats at any cost. There is also little hope that Nitish will be willing to compromise his party’s quota of seats. The JD(U) has proved its point in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
There is another danger lurking. In the last Assembly elections, Paswan fielded candidates in 134 seats as a direct challenge to Nitish’s vote bank. The wily chief minister hasn’t forgotten that. It’s said that he was behind engineering a split in the united LJP by backing Paswan’s uncle, Pashupati Paras, who became the party’s leader in the Lok Sabha in June 2021. If Nitish and Paswan are unable to bury the hatchet, it will have an adverse impact on the electoral calculus of the NDA.
Tussle In Mahagathbandhan Too
The issue of seat sharing in the Mahagathbandhan too is far from settled. It has been reported that, buoyed by its improved performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress is bargaining hard in Bihar, though it has suffered big setbacks in the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly polls. In the last Assembly elections, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) contested 144 seats and won 74, whereas the Congress contested 70 and won only 19. In all, the Mahagathbandhan won 110 seats in the 2020 Assembly elections compared to the NDA’s 125 seats.
The last time, Sahani’s VIP was not part of the opposition alliance. This time, it has switched camps and will need to be accommodated. After the Mahagathbandhan failed to cross the majority mark, it was said that the Congress fought well below its potential and that enabled the NDA to form the government. Political observers were of the opinion that had the Congress restricted itself to 40-45 seats, it would have helped the RJD and the Left parties. At the same time, it should be noted that the Congress was given seats which even the RJD has not won in the past two decades. Though seat sharing is a contentious issue, it doesn’t pose the threat of a break in the Mahagathbandhan. The parties have accepted the fact that the RJD is the strongest component of the alliance and so its Tejashwi Yadav is the rightful claimant for the chief minister’s post in case of victory. Also, the Congress is aware that it has to build the organisation in the state before it can hope to become a larger player in the political balancing act. The RJD and the Congress have fought separately on four different occasions and both parties suffered badly each time. Recently, Yadav and two colleagues met Congress President Kharge and Rahul Gandhi along with the Congress’ state in-charge, Krishna Allavaru, and the Bihar Congress’ newly appointed president, a Dalit leader, Rajesh Kumar. Though none of the participants in the meeting have commented upon the deliberations, those privy to the discussion say that two important issues were discussed. First, the Congress has no problems in accepting Yadav as the chief ministerial contender, but the RJD should not undermine the efforts of Kanhaiya Kumar and Pappu Yadav, who are playing an important role in re establishing the party in the state. Kumar’s march on foot across the state against migration elsewhere due to the dearth of jobs in the state was discussed and how it is in the interest of the Mahagathbandhan to accord centre-stage to one of the most important issues in Bihar before the elections which has been supported by senior leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Sachin Pilot.
Modi’s popularity remains intact in Bihar despite returning with a lesser number of seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections
After the initial impetus, it seems the euphoria surrounding Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is evaporating
A perceptible shift in Muslim votes towards the Mahagathbandhan will impact the prospects of Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM
To what extent Paras is able to dent Paswan’s Dalit and EBC vote banks after quitting the NDA remains to be seen. With the visible decline of Nitish Kumar, who till now mobilised the EBC votes very successfully—the key to winning elections in Bihar—the Mahagathbandhan just might fancy a chance to form the government
The second point of discussion focused on the seat sharing formula. It seems that the senior Congress leaders told Yadav that the party would fight only in those seats where it has chances of winning and not demand a higher seat share. It seems the Congress leaders pointed out that when the party contested only 41 seats in 2015, it managed to win 29. At the meeting it was also decided that coordination for seat sharing with the RJD will be left to Allavaru and Rajesh Kumar.
The Congress, to strengthen the organisation in the state, has infused fresh blood in the form of Allavaru and Rajesh Kumar in the top state leadership, besides appointing 19 new district presidents who have been directed by the high command to build the party’s presence on the ground at booth level.
Prashant Kishor Factor
The Prashant Kishor balloon seems to have punctured after his mega rally at Patna’s Gandhi Maidan flopped badly. He apologised to the sparse crowd for reaching the venue five hours behind schedule and blamed the state government for blocking the roads that prevented the crowd from reaching Gandhi Maidan. Earlier, in the Assembly by elections in February, he got some votes in one or two seats, but most of the party’s candidates forfeited their security deposits. People in Bihar view him and his Jan Suraaj Party as a proxy for the BJP, which has been propped up to cut into the votes of the Mahagathbandhan.
If we look at the 2020 Assembly elections, both alliances appear to be on strong footings. But this time, Sahani’s VIP and Paras’ Rashtriya Lok Jan Shakti Party, which commands a chunk of the Paswan community votes, joining the Mahagathbandhan has further complicated political equations in Bihar.
To what extent Paras is able to dent Paswan’s Dalit and EBC vote banks after quitting the NDA remains to be seen. With the visible decline of Nitish Kumar, who till now mobilised the EBC votes very successfully—the key to winning elections in Bihar—the Mahagathbandhan just might fancy a chance to form the government. In August 2022, when Nitish quit the NDA and formed the government with the Mahagathbandhan for 17 months before going back to the NDA, Yadav as the deputy chief minister made his mark by providing government jobs to the youth. This is still recalled by the youngsters in the state, a factor weighing in favour of the Mahagathbandhan. Also, unlike the last elections when Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won five seats, this time the outfit looks to be fading out with Muslim and other minority votes shifting towards the Mahagathbandhan. However, there is still considerable time for the Bihar Assembly elections to be held and the political equations can turn on their heads in a blink as both alliances seek to strike the right caste balance in putting up candidates.
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